Super week coming Fed rate hike, the whole world is waiting for the rate hike boot floor. Outside consensus forecast is being held (the United States in 2015, 15th-16th) this rate meeting will raise interest rates, the Fed's Federal open market Committee's 10 members how to vote, could be a peek from previous public statements.
Surging News (www.thepaper.CN) combed the since its October rate meeting, with only 9 of the 10 voting members who have spoken publicly, has been fed Governor Powell was speaking less as a "centrist" since August, expressed support after the rate hike, unpublished remarks on interest rates.
9 members, in addition to the discretion of the "Dove" other than nier·taluluo and Lael Brainard, have made it clear that should raise interest rates. At the last meeting, 9:1 decided to leave the interest rates despite the 10 members, most members agreed that raising interest rates during the year.
Richmond Fed President jiefurui·lakeer a man is like a team, always adhere to "hike" point of view, in September and October rate meeting and cast a negative vote, but now he's finally not alone in the fight.
However, while there are currently 7 people expressed support for raising interest rates, but still varies.
Among them, Yellen as the representative of "not later than" faction "Hawks", stresses the lag of monetary policy, that long-term rates would encourage excessive risk-taking. II character of the Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher and New York Fed President William Dudley thought employment raised interest rates and the inflation rate reached a precondition, believe that hike right.
Chicago Fed President chaersi·aiwensi, United States, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart "Dove", and raising interest rates, but believe that hike path is more important than raising interest rates, and Lockhart think dot diagrams might be the best indicator of the expected future path.
-9 members of the public at a glance:
Hardcore "hike": Richmond Fed President jiefurui·lakeer (Jeffrey Lacker) Fissler 1 in the business world coffee brand
Richmond Fed President jiefurui·lakeer (Jeffrey Lacker) has always been a big "interest", that is also the only Conference on 9, October has been a staunch "interest" officials.
On November 18, he said in an interview with CNBC, the Fed raised interest rates the reason is strong, because the United States job market improvement is significant. He expected future inflation rates will be held steady near 2%, and strong consumer spending. He thinks the Fed's September decision to postpone raising interest rates, is overreacting to the global economy, and that they had not seen evidence of low interest rates led to financial bubbles.
"The rate hike justified": New York Fed President William Dudley (William Dudley), Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher (Stanley Fischer)
Fed Vice Chairman Fisher address on November 19, the Fed has been doing all it can, avoid surprise to markets and Government.
On November 20, the Fed's third character, New York Fed President William Dudley (William Dudley) speech at Hofstra University, said the United States economy is in a good situation, next year also would be. Soon after, United States economy may be needed to reach the Fed raised interest rates. Over the next short period of time, the Fed can have confidence in the target rate of inflation increased to 2%. Expected inflation and labor market conditions to meet the preconditions for raising interest rates soon, is reasonable.
"Interest rates should not be late": the Federal Reserve President Yellen (Janet Yellen), Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams (John Williams)
Federal Reserve President Yellen on December 3 in United States Congressional testimony reiterated that the United States job market still is increasing, giving more confidence to rising inflation. She believe that delaying rate hikes may cause inflation above the target and disrupt the tightening cycle. This statement with Yellen on December 2 speech at the Economic Club of Washington. "On the whole, from the October meeting of the economic and financial data in accordance with ' the labour market had continued to improve ' expectations. "
On December 3, John Williams says, the Fed raised interest rates sooner rather than later, in increasing rates, waiting too long risk of inflation Undershoot will advance interest rates could allow the fed to slow and gradual tightening of monetary policy. He noted that the United States economy still needs to be some easing, but not always implemented measures of low interest rates.
In this regard, Yellen on November 12, September 24 stressed that the lag in monetary policy, saying that "If the Fed delayed to start raising interest rates for too long, is likely to end up having to suddenly tightening, forcefully to prevent the economy substantially ahead of two goals. "The sudden austerity could roil financial markets, even inadvertently push the economy toward recession. In addition, maintaining the federal funds rate at the current level for a long time, may also encourage excessive risk-taking, thereby undermining the financial stability. "
Slow path of "Dove": the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago chaersi·aiwensi (Charles Evans), the United States Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart (Dennis Lockhart)
On December 1, chaersi·aiwensi said, has been his support early interest rate hikes. Nervous about two weeks after the FOMC meeting. He believe that hike time is important as the speed of raising interest rates for the first time. The Fed must be strongly and effectively conveys to the public interest is slowly signal. If you do not do so, the Fed will face the risk of wrong decisions.
However, Evans and even worried about the Fed raising interest rates is a mistake. There is a possible fed incorrectly estimated the United States economy is strong degree of future inflation expectations were too high. There will be to shore up the economy, have to cut interest rates again to almost zero, even unconventional monetary policy instruments, such as large-scale asset purchases to stimulate the economy.
So Evans thought the Fed must act very slowly, at the end of 2016, the benchmark rate should be maintained at a level below the 1%. Evans believes that December meeting, Fed rate hike will slow in the future should be clearly elaborated. Similarly, Lockhart interview on December 7, CNBC interview, said that once interest rates start, he expects the Fed will adopt a more gradual path. However, each step in the evolutionary path, will provoke debate in financial markets.
Lockhart think point chart (dot pot) is probably the best indicator of the expected future path of. For him, the "evolutionary" path means that not every meeting will raise interest rates. He believes that the current condition of interest rate hikes is "very satisfactory".
Cautious "Doves": Fed Governor Brainard (Lael Brainard), Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo
Brainard said on November 4, United States job market improvements are extremely stable, certain aspects of the Outlook is encouraging, idle less slack in the economy, but still keep some weak progress; in addition, core inflation below the target, some inflation index fell. Brainard said, had a clear slowdown in the Chinese economy against another, the strengthening dollar on United States economy caught up.
On November 23, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said that inflation there is a lot of uncertainty, and should wait for more information to learn about inflation trends. Tarullo is not clear whether the December rate hike stance, said rate hikes point is more important than speed.
Prior to the October session, the two members have publicly opposed the rate hike this year.
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