CIC qi. Photo: Oriental IC
Note: this article is the CIC Deputy General Manager Mr Qi bin, speech at the caixin-side Forum on overseas investment, lecturer on the topic "the international financial situation and the overseas investment strategy".
Qi, Deputy General Manager of the China Investment Corporation. Mr Qi bin joined in 2016, China Investment Corporation, serving as Deputy General Manager. Prior to joining CIC, he has served as the China Securities Regulatory Commission's Strategic Development Committee, Deputy Director of the supervision Department of the Fund, Research Center Director (who is Executive Dean of the Beijing Research Institute of securities and Futures), Creative Director, the Director of the international cooperation Department of the Ministry.
Qi speech:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Very honored to finance new overseas investment forum-side, side and thanked the organizers of the new financial financial offer.
My speech will be divided into two parts, part of the international financial situation awareness, part reflection on China's overseas investment strategy.
"United States elections ended the unorthodox reverse-hit success"
On the international financial situation, is unable to avoid United States elections. (Below) this is circulating on the Internet that no version of the lyrics, there is China Internet users with a variety of versions of the lyrics. Should be the history of the most famous "Kara OK to sing" on the curtain call, United States election dust settles, unorthodox reverse hit success.
"In the history of the most famous karaoke OK Duet"
So coincidence and lucky, United States election days that we happened to go to the United States for the construction of the CIC Academy recruit. Arrival in Chicago on Saturday, in Chicago to lecture and preach to Chinese students do, of the Chinese Finance Association Conference in New York on Sunday, then on Monday and Tuesday to Boston and San Francisco, Tuesday is the United States the official election day. In addition to recruitment and preached, there is only one Monday morning, squeeze 5 United States institutions, one is the United States is known as the Chairman and CEO of large asset managers, he was 20 years ago when I worked on Wall Street, Goldman's colleagues, he was a relative of President Bush, is a standard United States "Guan Er dai" and "second generation". Most Americans are reluctant to talk openly about their political leanings and because he met many years ago, I quietly asked his views about the election results the next day. He describes himself as a staunch Republican, their family is also very famous for its senior Republican family, he said, if something unexpected happens, that if Trump is elected, he would consider immigration to China. I said, welcome, welcome to the CIC.
From his attitude, you can feel the United States mainstream elite to outright rejection of Trump.
That morning, we met a person, is a United States media barons-Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg, who took part in the presidential election as an independent candidate, then withdraw from the election. One of his assistants told me quietly, knew the two candidates continued later, Bloomberg went on to run in, but don't pick up. Bloomberg had withdraw from the election to avoid triage Hillary votes.
Morning and Wall Street United States elite finished talking, get the impression that Trump is United States social clowns, a bit like Don Ke Tak, Spears is ready to battle windmills, chances of success are almost zero. Meanwhile, on a Facebook poll, Trump in the support rate among ordinary people on Facebook than 90%.
We rushed to Boston from New York in the afternoon, evening at Harvard for more than more than 300 Chinese students in a lecture, encouraging returning back after construction of the country, the atmosphere warm, long after the lecture the students refused to disperse. Second days morning, United States election vote day, although 90 generation late I had in United States work learning 8.5 years, but also has never didn't see had Americans vote, so I with has a colleagues specifically run to find has a vote site see has about, Boston of winter wind biting, we run has five or six a blocks, last finally found has a vote station, Americans vote is this like of (Xia figure). Everyone says that Americans are not interested in politics, from the field of view, United States participate in the passion of the people is still very high, some places need to line up for 3 hours. We flew to San Francisco in the morning, to afternoon, 7 o'clock in the evening we have a teach-in at Stanford, 5 o'clock we go on the road, eight in the East at this time, began the counting of votes, in a number of key swing States, such as Florida, polls are 48.5% to 48.5%, was very tight. Market thought Hillary Clinton was elected without suspense, Trump needed five or six swing States all won election as possible, that is, Hillary Clinton just winning any of these, Trump lost. Now, we know the result, Trump not only won all five or six swing States, also won the traditional Democratic stronghold of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Perhaps aware of what the market, despite the United States stock market has closed, but is a 24-hour trading financial futures market, the international market is still trading, these markets are a bit stretched to live, become very volatile.
2016 United States election day vote Boston polling station
When I began to lecture to the students, seven in the East was ten, counting is still underway. I say United States it is not convenient for me to comment, but two points. First, what is today the final decision? It is to see the United States most of the people are not able to tolerate the status quo, if tolerated, is Hillary Clinton, if not tolerated, is Trump.
Second, if Trump is elected, United States markets plunge, you can buy it at once. Logical is it? United Kingdom after exit, United Kingdom stock fell 11%, up 8%, why? Exit polls before the vote showed off Ou Liuou what proportion are 50:50, 49:51, 48:52, only two 3% difference, those who are in favour of exit is not so without reason, so if you exit the market also should be slightly down, is there any reason to drop 11%? Similarly, the United States General elections, mainstream media opinion polls before the vote Mrs Clinton was leading Trump says, even if Trump is elected, no reasons for the collapse. You know, that night United States stock futures fell 7% the bottom line, then quickly rebounded, United States stock markets surged from then until now, the three major stock index hit a record high in a row. United Kingdom off European markets took two days to return to God, United States only took 7 hours.
Talks ended up at 10 o'clock, 1 o'clock in the morning in the East, the result has come out, I ask everyone who is elected, many people say that Trump was elected. Domestic students give me little sent the letter, said it was Donald Trump, you said it. I said I never want to predict who is going to win, in fact no one can predict. But I have to give the students analyze, Trump is not so there is no chance as everybody thought, why? Before the election, we see the United States Pew two statistics.
"Economic issues first, United States social reality"
2016 United States voters most concerned about the topic sort
This picture (above) shows the United States voter concern topics sorted are: economy, terrorism, Foreign Affairs, health, gun policy, immigration, social security, education, Supreme Court judges, minority rights, trade policy, abortion, gay rights and interests. You will find that top-ranked, first of all, economic or livelihood, and the second is security. Economic aspects, from 08 since the financial crisis, slow economic recovery; security, the United States and a series of terrorist attacks in Europe, society lost the basic sense of security. Hillary is the Conservatives, has been the United States defended the status quo and their own, it's a little like Chinese soccer player says we actually played pretty well, Hillary players are also actively applying for the captain and coach, earnestly pledged their commitment to lead everyone out of Asia, to the world, sounding nothing convincing. Trump to criticize the reality turned out, despite the unorthodox and outspoken, but many people find rough rough cut, what they says, even though they do not believe that Donald Trump could have a way of changing the status quo, but they felt they could recognize the reality, in the face of problems, is at least a step forward.
2016 United States election Trump supporters and Clinton supporters concerned about the topic with different focuses
This picture (above) to explain the problem. This picture blue dots are Hillary supporters before the election on issues of concern, percentage figures are concerned, red corresponds to Trump's supporters. You will find that there is a rule, Trump's supporters are more concerned about the previous economic, security, and Clinton supporters on the bottom of the issues, such as homosexuality, environmental issues and other concerns more than Donald Trump's supporters. In other words, Trump advocates worry more about the real issues, Clinton's supporters say is ideal. Finally, the beat ideal reality.
So, Trump elected to this phenomenon can be summed up in two words, "economic issues first, United States social reality."
"The United States of serious differentiation"
Such an election will give us a lot of inspiration. First, what the United States general election? I think this reveals to us the United States subject headings of the community, is the polarization and polarization. This polarization is first and foremost an extremely serious, almost the complete antithesis, followed by performances in almost all aspects.
General for of opposition is accept existing system, and stand status, also is cannot stand status and out away from anger, that so-called anger political; other of opposition also including: political right showdown deviant; clear followers social and Trump private problem, that United States is a clear followers of social, is a very Orthodox of social, we in United States work learning of when every day are can experience to, last had to accept so a has serious private problem of people do President, today wants to wants to are somewhat incredible.
Of other opposites are: ideology versus facts. Hillary compared stressed ideology, stressed United States of values, Trump relative for facts is, that at least admitted United States social some objective of problem, despite and does not necessarily has solution Programme; global police showdown United States priority, United States has been tries to in global played world police of role, objective Shang on maintained world order is has must role of, but it often and private word leading, coupled with ideology concept first, these entanglement in with, on compared mess has, again plus in recent years United States somewhat ambition, A lot of times it far outweigh the problems it solves the problems created in the Middle East was making a mess of it. Trump has proposed "United States priority", which past United States compared to the global policy and a rival.
There is clash between the East and the Midwest; rural and inner-city showdown, the result is the "countryside surrounding cities"; whites and ethnic minorities against whites supported Trump, ethnic minorities and immigrants, and so on to support Hillary Rodham Clinton. Only one exception in the minority, that is, Chinese, supporting Trump. Because they understand that Chinese have to take the TOEFL, GRE, ' well-to-do, study hard, work hard, can in United States society to survive, but Mexico tens of thousands of people every day from the border into, then in United States society disappear, such "bad money drives out good money" policy is certainly not sustainable.
"Modern political dilemma"
The second revelation, the United States election reveals political faces several difficulties.
First, the United States General elections, has basically become a "not the worst, only much worse," "ugly campaign" United States social elite such as Bloomberg, many opted out. Actually, participation modern political as United States election of cost very high, huge of financial spending not said, fathers eight generation are to was scolded a again, every day was people curse, and slander, and defamation, no privacy can statements, and really of up yihou seems also dry can't what, because United States is small government, and big market, only can mobilization of financial resources also by Senate of constraints. Costs and returns severely asymmetric, the end result is that many elites chose not to enter politics.
Second is the boundary of the referendum, in what is the modern political decisions necessary to resort to a referendum? United States this form of election is a referendum; the British decision to resort to referendum to exit; we're going to have a new stock index futures are not a referendum; Colombia fight decades of war, misery, finally negotiated a cease-fire, the President won the Nobel Peace Prize, has not yet had time to lead, a referendum, many people say that, then. What matter is the modern political referendum settled science, and where are the boundaries of the referendum, worthy of our thoughts.
Third, public morality and personal morality issues Trump WINS section explains the United States forgive Trump's private morality of society, not forgive Clinton's ethics problems.
IV non-traditional politicians and businessmen in modern political politics, will become a trend? Trump was elected the following day, stocks rebounded, a famous hedge fund manager on Wall Street said on CNN, he woke up in the morning and suddenly realized that Trump might become a great President. The host asked, you've not see it that way. He said, he awakened to find the world changed, he thought he was when Reagan was elected, everyone said Reagan was a clown and puppets, and Reagan was a great President. Reagan did the right thing, is to push the tax cuts and economic liberalization result United States prospered again. The Fund Manager said, he realized that the United States is the world's largest economy, United States should be led by an economics person. Trump understand economy don't know real estate is at least know a little. Shortly thereafter, said Terry GOU, Taiwan leader election.
"The understanding of modern media or media"
We all know that the rise of media, only by the United States General elections, we really see the power of media. United States supports Clinton's daily is 229, support Trump's 9; open United States television station almost every dig at Trump, if you watch CNN every day, you would think that Trump is a rogue and a clown, but in the United States of Facebook shangtelangpu garnered support in 90%. In the two days before the vote, CNN reported Clinton's FBI investigation officers commit suicide at home, his wife was killed, the House was burned by a fire, but no context, nothing; Trump was elected, for the first time successfully visited the New York Times, United States mainstream media have no one to ask private questions.
"Understanding the Trump deal, Sino-US relations and globalization"
From the Interior, he would obviously pay more attention to economic development, especially infrastructure construction or reconstruction, especially in this great space for cooperation between China and. Three weeks ago in the United States when the train from New York to Boston, deeply felt, United States people too need the Chinese to help them build high-speed rail, not only slow, poor attitude, no points, a shaking so badly you can't stand alone, stand almost upright, this is the United States the best high-speed rail. Meanwhile, three Democratic stronghold of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Trump, mainly because the State's extremely disappointed in the present situation of industrial workers, Trump must explain to them after taking office, but China's vast market and the current phase of development is expected to be for the United States many manufacturers provide great new opportunities for development in the Midwest.
Trump stresses diplomacy United States priority, hope that the United States lose the diplomatic deal or reducing some factors of instability in the world.
Understanding of Sino-American relations, Sino-US relations in a Word, is that competition and cooperation. A month ago, I took part in the Organization of Tsinghua University and United States dialogue former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, Summers said many Americans fear that China's threats and challenges, I say that China's labor productivity is only United States of 7%, so the scope for cooperation between the two countries is far greater than any other, we should strengthen cooperation and bilateral investment, this will not only benefit China's economic transformation and upgrading, but also beneficial to United States economic recovery and prosperity.
Many people think that Trump was elected means that anti-globalization or global defeated. In fact, this should be understood as more a reflection of the globalization-"you can have an ideal, but not ideal." Globalisation is a good thing, unstoppable, but in advance of the time, you might need more realistic advance. Just as European integration, you have Germany and Greece tied together the two totally different economies, there will be a big problem, it is unsustainable. When Europe's debt crisis, Greece half the people took to the streets, Greece daily attendance may not have to work half of Greece there was a monastery, there are 40 gardener, check, find this monastery there is no garden, 40 gardeners are empty rates. Such countries and strict German industry together, waiting for the problem. Trump came to power and United Kingdom as exit, is an opportunity for reflection, maybe not so bad, perhaps globalization, European integration, free trade, the EU free movement of people, are a little more realistic.
"United Kingdom exit caused furious political quagmire of the EU refugee"
Earlier this year from the United Kingdom exit began, a series of Black Swan events, United Kingdom after the exit, United Kingdom magazine the Economist has invented a new Word called "angry politics" or "emotional politics" or "irrational politics." Voters are not satisfied with the status quo, in a sense, United Kingdom – exit is an emotional catharsis "angry political" basically explains all events that occur thereafter.
Let us look at Europe, deep quagmire of refugees in Europe, especially Germany and France. France has a large number of refugees are concentrated in the camp, some refugees mob riots, police in maintaining order, also beat them. German lesson, they spread through the small town, now Germany thousands of beautiful small town, has become the pressure cookers can explode at any time, some refugees held in the stadium, you can't always put them in there, too, but put out, you don't know what's gonna happen. Most of the refugees in the country are lawyers and doctors, have a very high social status, very respectable, everyday in such a State, are susceptible to depression, are widely available and automatic weapons on the black market. Earlier Germany suicide attacks four times a week, three times was not a terrorist attack, but caused by depression. Germany 1 million refugees, 1% depression, that is 10,000 people, 1 per thousand of the population depression is 1000, so we know that Ms Merkel's political future is very bleak. We look at this picture (below), the Arab refugee migration routes to Europe, the reverse is Europe thousands of years ago to conquer the Arabian crusades course.
Refugees fleeing Europe Middle East and Africa route "the clash of civilizations and the challenge of tolerance and reconciliation can lead humanity out of the Woods"
So, today Europe's woes don't run behind two great civilizations of human conflict and romance of the Millennium. On the fourth day after the 911 incident, I and a number of Pro, there is a speech, finally put together an article entitled the clash of civilizations and the challenge. Analysis of the necessity of 911 happened lies in the contradiction between Islamic and Christian civilizations and North-South (rich and poor) conflict, and Israel and the Arab States surrounding conflict and because the Jews in the United States, great social influence to intensify the United States and Arab countries, interweaving of contradiction--the three major contradictions, make the 911 incident has a certain inevitability to some extent. After 911, United States under the strong culture of retaliation or massive retaliation, elimination of several in the Middle East, "Wicked", the result is put out thousands of demons and set up an Islamic State, disturbing Arab people fleeing everywhere in the Middle East, which is the root of the turmoil in Europe today.
Spain 8th century AD Christian churches and mosques in one building
How to get out of trouble? Show you a photo (above), this was several years ago I was in Spain saw a church, surprising is that half of them are Christian churches, half of the mosque. Humans have in a very short period of time, around the 8th century AD, Spain was ruled by the Arabs, Christianity and Islam, Arabs and Jews can live together in harmony, even their day of worship was negotiated indiscipline which. United States historian van Loon has a book called tolerance, he described Europe thousands of years in all schools of religious persecution, the delight of history, the conclusion is that humans can only rely on tolerance and reconciliation can finally out of the Woods.
"Europe Japan seriously lagging the anemic economic recovery and structural reform"
In a geopolitical context, the world economy, especially in the European economic recovery was very slow. Of course, one reason for the slow economic recovery and tensions explode, they reinforce each other. Since 2007, Europe's GDP grew by an average of 5%, we discuss today China's GDP was 6.5% or 6.7%, Europe was increased by only 10 5%.
And to make matters worse, the globe, slow structural reforms seriously. 1929 United States took one of the biggest stock market crash in history, when soon after the establishment of the Federal Reserve's inaction, then United States the great depression of the 1930 's, tens of thousands of people were starved to death. 08 years later, everyone said to absorb the lessons of the 29, so to start a large-scale bailout, we print have printed more money, of course, Japan is the most, unlimited width. Japanese always wanted Abe's policies will be chicken blood miracle, now it seems to be really no, but then went on to play. Sometimes I think this crisis is all really printed has printed too much money, if relief was excessive, especially in many Western countries the political cycle is very short, it objectively makes structural reforms has slowed. This is a question to ask members to think about.
Talk so much analysis of the international situation, we still want to be able to gain, what course we thought we should go ...
"Surprisingly similar history: what determines the rise and fall of the great powers"
1960-2007 capital markets and banks rebounded after the leading OECD countries in crisis at different speeds
Shown here is the IMF economists in a study conducted in 2007. They studied 1960-2007 nearly 50-year history of 17 OECD countries in economic development, total of 80 large and small economies of these countries during the financial crisis. Statistics show that always the fastest speed of recovery after the crisis the financial system led to capital markets in four countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, and Canada, and Australia, and recovery is the slowest of all is Bank-four countries: Austria, and Portugal, and Spain and Belgium. Both represent two different ways of allocation of resources, more developed capital markets resource allocation more market-oriented financial system, there is more market-oriented economy, and bounce back faster after each crisis, economies more flexible, sustainable development. Commercial Bank-dominated financial system market-oriented allocation of resources low, slow rebound after each crisis. Economic development, frustration or crisis is normal, and if you can rebound quickly after each crisis, rising over time, if the recovery is slow, the decline over time.
The global financial crisis of 2008, originated on Wall Street, United States economy has been the most direct impact, but crisis after United States the fastest economic recovery in the developed economies, history repeats again.
This study shows that a country's financial system, capital markets development and the degree of market-oriented economic system for sustainable economic development and economic flexibility have a decisive impact, and to some extent also determines the rise and fall of the great powers.
From this law, we have to think about is, what financial system and the economic system should be established in China. We should establish a more market-oriented financial system, hope that an increasing proportion of capital in the financial system. Of course, we develop the capital market and cannot happen overnight, not beyond reality, but must turn in this direction. Meanwhile, should further promote economic restructuring, making our economy more market-oriented.
Today China's financial structure, capital market and the ratio of commercial banks was 2:8, United States 8:2. 20 years ago, Korea's capital markets and the chaebol (mixture of large enterprises and consortia) is 2:8. For 20 years, Korea society from entrepreneurs and financiers to politicians, there have been a lot of corruption and corruption came to light the tragedy of this resource allocation is highly relevant, non-market configuration, is not transparent and good brothers, all under the table deals, one day the sun shines, ugly jump jumping off a cliff. After 20 years of development and opening up of Korea chaebol and the proportion of capital markets today are 5:5, Korea has made great progress in the financial system, also produced a large number of high-tech enterprises.
Recently Korea erupted in "intervention", a series of events, and netizens ridicule, the world is "TV" and "drama" the most exciting. This view, Korea's modernization process still has a long way to go, to move towards more transparent and market-oriented allocation of resources.
"Knowing our time across the middle income trap"
After a some talk about foreign investment. Today, we must first understand the times we live, we are promoting the development of enterprises is also thinking about the future of China, the most important thing, is to have a better sense of history and a sense of direction.
Smog in Beijing today especially, we happened to be meeting in the international phase III, came online a while ago a famous "China world phase III once again successfully launched" fun photos, just specifically for this photo to find out. Remember the weather a severe smog in Beijing a few years ago, I first went to Korea meet Seoul, see blue sky and white cloud, formed a very sharp contrast. I like Korea said, lucky you lived every day to the environment. Korea said US 20 years ago, and Beijing is the same of you.
"International trade three successful launch once again"
Korea Seoul South Hill red leaves
Strikingly similar history: today's Beijing, Seoul, 20 years ago, 30 years ago, Tokyo, Los Angeles, 80 years ago, 50 years ago in London, were caught in the fog and haze problem. Today, many of China's problems, whether it be environmental issues, and economic and social problems, the developed countries had experienced at this stage, there is a certain inevitability. Some countries have successfully passed this stage, some countries did not come out.
In 2010, China's per capita GDP reached us $4300, into the threshold of middle income countries. A World Bank study showed that many countries in Latin America and South-East Asia, in 1970 and has entered the middle-income countries today still fall within the per capita GDP of more than $10,000. One of the most famous country is Argentina, which reached us $4000 per capita in 1913, and today, 100 years later is still hovering in the middle income trap. Two years ago, the Economist's cover story was entitled Argentina is spent 100 years from a developed countries into developing countries.
In today's China, economic development is the primary task of the quality, it could pull the overall progress of social civilization, we should speed up economic restructuring and growth, promotion of Chinese society as soon as possible across the middle income trap.
"Chinese society is upgrading demand side supply side structural reform has come"
1992-2011 China's Taiwan, and Japan and mainland China per capita calorie intake chart
This picture (above) can help us understand today's Chinese society is undergoing transformation. Top curves represent the Taiwan people for the past 20 years, per capita calorie intake of change, all the way down, there are at least two reasons: first, population ageing, and second, people more and more attention, don't eat so much, so it's a downward trend. Curves are in the middle of Japan, Taiwan, and a downward trend, indicating Japan first more ageing society, secondly people eating more attention. You get to Japan to eat, restaurant will be inserted on each dish a sign that tells you how many calories in this dish, make you may appetite.
The bottom curve represents the peoples of our continent per capita calorie intake over the past 20 years, we see that is way up, managed to surpass Japan and China's Taiwan region. This tells us that our economic development and achieved great success, solved the problem of food and clothing. But we can definitely predict, this curve will turn down in the near future, why not? First, our country has an aging population and, second, we also more and more attention, try not to eat too much high-calorie food.
Impressed I was, 20 years ago, I worked on Wall Street in New York, did not understand the two in New York, one of the City Central such a big place to build a House, got a huge Central Park across Liu、qishitiao Street, what a waste, now we know that if there is no Central Park New York, land prices will fall by at least half. Second is the Central Park every day a lot of people running, when we are poor students, and I just wanted to, this time, how not to make a work or something?
Changde, 2016-a-thon
The Olson park any day you arrive in Beijing today, you will see many people running, running the Chinese and Americans are very different. Americans are a people run, run with the Chinese are a large group of people, are micro-groups of a running group. This year China has more than 100 cities Marathon was held, I participate for the first time recently, is to experience it, running a half horse, in changde, Hunan (pictured above). Changde, why is it? On the other is not, changde is a friend to meet organizers, say hello to the newspaper, too hot.
Marathoners reflects the social changes in China from trying to eat into trying to lose weight, shape of the whole society is undergoing profound changes. So we say, material traction spiritual civilization, economic development and social transformation.
In this process, a quietly changes is that consumption upgrading in Chinese society has arrived. Suddenly, the outdoor equipment became a fashionable products, travel abroad became the norm, medical health has become a topic of most concern. Past, people go to the supermarket to buy meat, 6 bucks a pound might also want to think about, now 60 dollars a pound of black eyes without blinking, a wealthy, second, cherish life. The demand side of the economy escalated.
Upgrade of China's economic and social demand side supply side structural reform is inevitable and imminent.
2015 China's output per labor with the United States and the world average of contrast
This is the (pictured) today, China's output per labor, labor productivity, although the us as the world's second-largest economy, but our per capita labor productivity is only United States of 7%, 40% of the world average, it contains all the African countries. Meanwhile, most of our enterprise product hovered at the lower end of the industrial chain of the world, people go to Japan to buy toilet becomes a fashion. So we need to increase the supply side structural reform efforts.
"Supply side reform in two ways: self-innovation and overseas mergers and acquisitions"
On the demand side was updated, supply-side upgrade there are two paths, one self-innovation, it needs a building and improvement of institutional mechanisms, in particular the development of capital markets; another path, that is, overseas mergers and acquisitions, the "-ISM".
2015 distribution of overseas mergers and acquisitions in China
Here we focus on the second path, overseas mergers and acquisitions.
This is the (top) 2015 distribution of overseas mergers and acquisitions in China. From 1990 to 2014 in more than 20 years, the overseas merger and acquisition is the most important part of our energy and resources, to the great changes took place in 2015, the top three are the high technology, manufacturing, and consumer, we find that today's Chinese enterprises and investors to invest abroad, is aimed at development of the domestic consumer market. So hot transfer in the field of overseas mergers and acquisitions in recent years, reflects China's economy from export-led to domestic demand as the main direction of significant transformation. National development and Reform Commission not
"Elements of the success of overseas mergers and acquisitions"
Chinese people going abroad, overseas mergers and acquisitions, with ups and downs, you name it, there have been successes, there are many failures. While each unhappy family is unhappy in its own, but if overseas mergers and acquisitions have no clear strategy, consumer market of 1.3 billion people, China cannot create synergy, that would be so much less chance of success, or at best is a kind of random walk, all gambling. Other important reasons for failure include: aggressive fish until, unable to win, likely to be voted in the country's conflict and bounce back; not for the entire value chain management, talent is not enough, after investment withdrawal mechanism of management, integration, and lack of capacity.
Success of case in the, first is strategy clear, aimed at overseas advanced of technology, and advanced of products, and advanced of service, and advanced of commercial mode, to has enough of vision, see it and China market 1.3 billion consumers docking of opportunities; second, if can formed collaborative effect, often also on can save many developed of enterprise and industry, achieved total win, also easy get was voted enterprise and national of welcomes, reduced conflict, pricing negotiations also can relies on China consumers market of huge potential, enhanced negotiations force; third, Need to promote investment in the subject matter and the real butt of industry and market in China and landing, or manufacturing side, end or marketing, or both; four is the complete investment management and operations including the use of China's capital markets platform (listed a-shares and h-shares, or A+H); five is to have a high performance team.
Specific investment direction, focusing on consumer upgrades, upgrading of the manufacturing industry, and new industries discover efforts to provide new impetus to China's economic growth. We observation overseas developed market of industry, has three a typical of investment direction of representative: first article line, day Han two, focus for health medical and advanced manufacturing,, roughly leading China 3-5 years; second article line, Germany, and European, and Israel, country, focus for advanced manufacturing and innovation economic industry,, roughly leading China 5-7 years; third article line, United States Silicon Valley, focus for hi-tech (TMT, and biological pharmaceutical,) and innovation economic industry,, roughly leading China 10-15 years. China overseas investment goal should be echelon of these industries continue to combine with those in China, driving China's industrial upgrading and accelerate China's economic modernization, also benefit those countries and economies. Here do not rule out such as the United States and some traditional manufacturing in the Midwest, is still more advanced relative to the Chinese market, combining it with China's huge market, could save some sunset industries and achieve win-win. The development and rise of China if not the world, is not sustainable.
"Trump gifts Abe"
More than 10 years ago, China launched the QFII, welcome to international institutional investors to invest in China's capital market in the world, many of Japan's investors interested in 2006, I went to Japan to participate in a seminar on China's capital market. In Tokyo hit a Tsinghua alumni, he was already in Japan for 20 years, engaged in a number of small trade, I said you can look at Japan what is good, buy it to China, he says he's just not that much money, I said you can find PE (private equity fund). After some time, he called me, said Japan has a company going bankrupt, HONMA, is the world's only manufacturer of branded golf clubs in Asia, these clubs are more suitable for Asian people, as Japan's population ages, golfing population plummeted, virtually bankrupt, asked if I could buy? I said you can buy.
He then went to the three Chinese PE, started buying the business. Later, encountered two problems. First Japanese said it is Japan's national brands, does not want to be Chinese brand, I suggested he keep the original brand, might be more attractive in the Chinese market and, secondly, Japan didn't want their manufacturing base to China, I say yes, although such costs may be higher, but Japan's manufacturing process is excellent, you can ensure the quality. I say as long as you can marketing to China.
What happened later is, in 2010, cost $100 million, buy HONMA company rebuilt marketing channels in China, met head-on just under eight, eight provisions is a great progress for Chinese society can be hit hard for golf in the near future. Requirements of natural growth, after all, but Chinese society is increasing, after the acquisition of good performance HONMA. They are looking for in the a-share listing, but found they were lined up in front of nearly 700 companies, so reluctantly endure the low price-earnings ratio of 15 times to the Hong Kong market. On September 22, 2016, HONMA successfully listed in Hong Kong, they had invested US $1 billion of the $100 million valuation. 10 times return. When he returned to Beijing to come to my Office to thank me, if it were not for him, I don't know what they have achieved so much success, and almost forgot about it.
This case has some chance, but contains a successful overseas mergers and acquisitions in all important elements for success. First, and China of consumers market has collaborative effect; second, full industry chain management, from investment, to voted Hou marketing channel in China of reconstruction, to in Hong Kong market listed, is a full of chain; third, benefit has was voted enterprise and national, achieved has total win, production HONMA of Japan city has is big part population to this living, Chinese of investment save has this city in the many people of livelihoods, believes they are in favour of in the day friendly.
There is one needs to thank the Chinese. Recently, Abe comes rushing to New York to meet newly elected Trump, sent a gift, it is a club HONMA, Trump has a passion for golf. But was rescued by the Chinese, the Japanese lost a national brand, Abe has no such a perfect gift to send.
"CIC's total portfolio the core strategies of the three major asset classes and in transition"
CIC's current three combinations, an open market, an alternative investment and direct investment. We will separately in each plate continuous improvement.
First a combination for public market investment, we are know, wants to in a very effective of public market to beat market is very difficult of, so public market of core strategy is: a, optimization assets configuration: history experience showed that, assets configuration can decided 95% of returns; II, and strengthened macro judge; three, and dynamic regulation active and passive management proportion, in some no compared advantage of market in the gradually steering passive investment or index investment, to reduced cost. Overall, the assets are highly liquid assets.
Second into alternative investments, including private equity, private credit, private equity real estate, private equity and infrastructure funds sections, this asset class should tolerate a higher risk, and gets a higher return. In this section how to add Chinese elements, with a Chinese perspective, to increase added value, is the question we need to think about. Through this plate of investments to explore and strengthen the capacity of direct investment.
Third combination for direct investment. Direct investment can have a high potential return, but potential risks are enormous, if you do not have sufficient capacity-building, the results may be even more disastrous. So straight voted strategy of focus for and China related of across border investment and merger, play CIC advantage, help was voted company and China market depth fusion, promoted China industry transformation upgrade, and was voted national achieved win-win; for full chain management, voted Hou management and industry integration and early investment decision also important or more important, until was voted enterprise in shares, and h or A+H unit listed; and China Civil PE, and industry, and local government, and industry Fund, and Technology Park, and Huijin, owned by brokerages and the international financial institutions, such as the depth of cooperation, Division of labor and cooperation, to create synergy; direct mail strategy's goal is to get the excess proceeds; direct investment and capacity-strengthening and model can gradually increase the investment amount at maturity.
"Build" carrier battle group "mode of overseas mergers and acquisitions to accelerate China's economic transformation to the benefit of the world"
Some of the overseas investment in China in recent years, there have been a lot of wild elephants. In the area of consumer goods, in a lot of France or Spain Winery, all at the same time there are a number of local Chinese in the bidding, not only have very high prices, has disrupted the world economic order. This phenomenon is not uncommon in manufacturing and other areas. CIC future of overseas merger strategy, will tries to established a new of mode, by national team and industry, and civil PE, and securities company, and listed company, and place industry Fund and Technology Park, common composition "carrier fighting group", each, play compared advantage, collaborative combat; "out of to" of purpose is to "Please back", overseas merger of core is and China 1.3 billion consumers market of docking and landing, full process also should contains these industry or enterprise and shares market or Hong Kong market of docking And effective integration of commercial investment and industrial upgrading strategic objectives, CIC capital funding a huge force, leveraging China's economic transformation. The presence today of so many Chinese PE, industry, listed companies, local leaders, local industry and the science and Technology Park, welcomes us all to work together, to create synergy, cooperation and, of course, which is not to say that Government or administrative arrangements, is by way of marketization, we each play our comparative advantage, members perform their respective duties, work together.
"Exploring the management mode of China's sovereign wealth Fund"
We study and compare of all the world's main sovereign wealth fund management models, found us and they are very different. First of all, our liquidity requirements are minimum, that there are no very strong realisation of requirements, therefore, you can invest in longer-term assets. Second, we can tolerate a higher degree of risk and, therefore, it is possible to reap the potential benefits of larger.
While, most important of, we is China of sovereignty wealth Fund, ought to frame up China and world of bridge, using CIC of funds, investment Yu other national advanced of products, and technology, and service, and commercial mode, with back and China market and industry docking, speed up China economic transformation and modern of pace, for China of rise made contribution, also can in this process in the get relative more high of returns, achieved State-owned assets maximum degree of hedge value-added. This is all as compared to other national sovereign Fund in the world, so, we can on the sovereignty of other States based on the Fund's experience to the full, play to our strengths, serve the overall situation of reform and opening up and seeking truth from facts, gonna take the road I'm gonna take to explore sovereign wealth fund management model with Chinese characteristics.
To sum up, there are a few points:
First, in the open market, alternative investment and direct investment between the three dynamic adjustment direct ability assets more open market after the direct-mail market; mutual collaboration among the three, mutual support and concerted efforts;
Second, open market investment objectives: investment in the international market, achieving value, understanding of the world, access to information;
Third, alternative investment goals: get higher returns through Chinese perspectives add value; as a platform for exploring and strengthening the capacity of direct investment;
Four, and strengthened directly investment strategy and capacity construction, focus concern and China related of across border investment, service Yu China economic transformation and industry upgrade, relies on Yu China 1.3 billion consumers of huge market potential, promoted supply side structural reform, investment Yu developed and development in the market, effective support way area strategy; promote bilateral trade and investment, implementation win-win and more win strategy; led China Enterprise out of to and please came in, and industry, and PE territories, and local government, and securities company, and international financial institutions established depth cooperation mode ；
Five, by investing in international markets and transnational mergers and acquisitions, gain valuable experience, learn about world trends, enhance communication with the world, build suggestions for national reform and opening up and accelerate the process of China's economic and social modernization;
Six, effective financial investment and support the strategic goals of China's economic transition, drawing on international experience, play advantage, gonna take the road I'm gonna take, sovereign wealth fund management model with Chinese characteristics.
"Research-driven investment: to build CIC Research Institute"
To support this mode and strategy, we are forming CIC Research Institute, its primary target is to support CIC's development strategies and investment decisions; second, the reserves for CIC and China's financial system and develop talent, talent pool; and, third, economic reform policy advice for the country, became an influential think tank. Online has a sentence popular language, called "think-tank is a national of IQ", CIC is China reached world of tentacles, almost global most excellent of financial institutions will to and CIC deal, we if can pick global wisdom, formed policy recommends, will is expected to for national of economic policy provides more of intelligence support, its role and meaning is far Super Yu General of financial returns or investment benefits of. Recently we to United States main city and University of "road played" zhihou, received has more than 1500 over of resume, except internal other sector came participate in Institute of yiwai, only left has more than 10 a people of prepared, is to "one" has, description General of students does is heart to country of, also eager to hope through CIC this platform and will advance of overseas merger strategy, links China and world, accelerated China economic social modern.
"The long-term driving force of China's economic growth"
At the end of the, told me two stories.
The first story. Ten years ago, in 2006, my colleagues with our SFC Research Center tunnel war ruins the party building in the suburbs, sees there's a billboard, is a local farmer-run farm house of billboards, I said I want a photo with it, because this billboard along with 27 other people's ads on top. Then once in international forums, I demonstrated this photo to the representatives of participating States, I say you go to another country in this world, looking for a place, together with 27 other people's advertising came in, and competition is the same thing, difficult to estimate, it is estimated that only China. In every corner of the Chinese economy, we see this Billboard's shadow.
Chinese people such a fortune and do not fear competition spirit is the power of sustaining economic growth in China.
Of course, we also often there is too much competition, so we need to keep on perfecting the market economic system, so that these become constructive competition, compete more effectively, and to promote the growth of China's economy.
China's economy in the long term, that is, Deng Xiaoping said in 1984, our development in two phases, the first phase by 2000 per capita income reaches us $800, when he said the US per capita of only $160, we say, over five times, impossible, right? Results six times over, back in 2000, to $1000 per person. He said, we want to build on the one, and 30 to 50, you can catch up with the level of moderately developed countries. Behind the 30 has just opened. He said only in this way, we can say that the Chinese nation contributing to human. This remark is made very heavy, we have 5,000 years of history, we have a glorious civilization, but we do not have enough to eat dinner, you can't. We have to solve their own problem of food and clothing, to solve their own development problems, convincing. We want to develop our material, spiritual and social civilization, made a lot of progress, we develop, also can help those countries that lag behind, for they provide a reference path and pattern, so that we can be contributed to human.
"The train for spring"
I'll second short story, I have a friend who loves photography, her circle of friends, put a photo of the Juyongguan pass spring flowers, very nice. My weekend with a young man went to the Juyongguan pass, to take a look at the flowers, it is very beautiful, a lot of people holding guns short blast photographing there, we took a few pictures with his mobile phone. Down when we met two guys, we looked at the photo of them, gave us a start, is a high-resolution panorama, very shocking. I say you have to use a lot of cameras so beautiful photos to, Ah, they say no, we are using the drones, according to the.
Suddenly you find that, inadvertently, in the prospects for China's huge market and low-cost manufacturing, supported by UAV industry quietly rising in China. Unmanned aerial vehicles in China's price only two thousand or three thousand Yuan, while in the United States, two thousand or three thousand dollars for similar products made in this emerging industry, ahead of the United States.
"The train for spring"
I remember 10 years ago, I went to Changsha travel, see each rental behind the driver's seat has an LCD screen, was incredible, New York taxis are also possible on each car has a LCD screen, which is much more expensive. Ask, learned at home, LCD screen, so only four hundred or five hundred dollars, China's manufacturing cost and the huge market of 1.3 billion consumers is two huge advantages.
We found that the world today and 30 years ago there are some differences. 30 years ago, developed countries had a refrigerator, color TV, we do not have. Some of them we have today, they are not nor do we, in a sense, in the face of unknown point in the future, we and they are on the same starting line. Developed has they of advantage, like technology advantage, and system mechanism of advantage, and VC, and PE, and capital markets of advantage, these we are in speed up construction and improved, but we also has we of advantage, we has 1.3 billion people of huge consumption market, has people industrious brave, and pursued of spirit, we has relative still low of manufacturing cost, we today also has has reform 30 years accumulated up of huge wealth and capital advantage, for capital markets development and overseas merger provides has conditions. On one hand, we should speed up the pace of reform, improved institutional mechanisms to speed up the construction of capital market, support our independent innovation, on the other hand, we should effectively promote and improve overseas mergers and acquisitions, and better used.
I think we do these two things, is able to accelerate the pace of economic restructuring and the rise of China.
In order to express our hopes for the success of China's economic transition, I give the photo a name, called "the train for spring" – we are in the depths of winter smog in Beijing today waiting for the coming of spring.
Thank you very much!
Source: side financial
Original title: CIC Qi bin, overseas mergers and acquisitions on the international situation and economic transformation
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